Attacks in the Middle East region, sparked by Israeli and US strikes on Iran, is sending economic shockwaves far beyond the areas directly affected by the violence, with disrupted trade routes and market shortages already pushing up the cost of fuel in countries such as Nigeria and Somaliland, ActionAid and its partners warn.
Across several countries where ActionAid works, partners report that the expanding regional war is placing additional pressure on communities already facing poverty, conflict and climate shocks, as families struggle with both forced displacement and rapidly rising living costs.
Disruptions to fuel supplies, transport routes and regional trade are already driving up the cost of fuel, with the effects being felt far beyond the areas directly affected by violence. Israeli and US strikes on Iranian oil depots and refining facilities, alongside Iranian drone and missile attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including a refinery in Bahrain, are increasing volatility in global energy markets. Iran produces around 3–4% of the world’s oil and the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route off its southern coast, carries roughly a fifth of global oil supplies, meaning any disruption has immediate consequences for fuel prices, transport costs and basic commodities. Around a third of global fertiliser exports, vital for food security, also pass through this route.
The impact is already being felt in fragile economies. In Nigeria, where fuel prices are closely tied to global oil markets, reports indicate petrol prices have surged above 1000 naira per litre following the attacks. Rising fuel costs quickly push up the price of staple goods and transport, deepening hardship for households already facing fragile economies and high living costs. Damage to oil facilities and attacks on critical infrastructure, including desalination plants, also risk long-term environmental harm and disruptions to safe water supplies for millions of people.
In Lebanon, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated rapidly as Israeli airstrikes continue and the number of people registered as forcibly displaced has surpassed half a million in just one week. The Lebanese Ministry of Information has stated that in recent days one in four people in Lebanon are at risk of forced displacement. At least 1.2 million people living in Beirut’s southern suburbs and in areas south of the Litani River have received Israeli displacement orders.
These continued Israeli attacks have hit communities that were already struggling with a severe economic crisis and years of instability. Many of those fleeing the south have already been displaced multiple times following Israeli airstrikes that have repeatedly violated the ceasefire announced in November 2024.
Roula Zaaiter is the director of the SPA2 project with the Lebanese Women Democratic Gathering (RDFL), ActionAid’s partner in Lebanon, based in the Baalbek, Hermel region – one of the hardest hit areas. She said: “This area has been subjected to many threats and direct shelling. The people in areas around us have left the area and it has become somewhat empty of residents. Many have moved to the Zahlè area, and some to Deir al-Ahmar, to shelters in schools, and they are living in a state of anxiety, fear, and insecurity about the future. These people left during extremely difficult times, amidst warnings and threats of bombing, so they didn't take their basic belongings and necessities with them.
“As for the families displaced from the south, they also sought refuge in safer areas in the Bekaa in Jib Jannine, Qab Elias, Bar Elias, and the surrounding areas. Some people are still sleeping in their cars on the roads, while others sleep under trees or near bridges... Most, if not the majority, of those displaced are women and children.”
The crisis is creating rising social tensions and worsening the already dire economic situation in the country, Roula said, continuing:
“It has become clear that this crisis has created a kind of underlying conflict among people...Many local authorities are imposing harsh conditions on accepting displaced people within their geographical area. They require names and identification documents and want to know who enters and leaves homes. Some municipalities have even imposed fines on [landlords] who rent to displaced people.
“These communities are fragile and already living in a difficult economic situation before the escalation, facing hardships such as currency collapse and ferocious high prices.“
The regional war is also intensifying humanitarian pressures in Gaza, where people are already living through years of genocide and wider devastation across the West Bank.
Faten Abu Shamaleh, Project Coordinator at WEFAQ Society for Women and Child Care, ActionAid’s partner in Gaza, said: “The people of Gaza are experiencing a new wave of fear and deep anxiety as the current war unfolds in the region. This escalation has revived painful memories of previous crises, especially the fear of returning to famine [with the] severe shortage of basic necessities.
“From the very first days of the escalation, border crossings were closed, and goods quickly began to disappear from markets. Prices have risen dramatically, placing an unbearable burden on families who are already struggling to survive after months of devastation and hardship.
“Gaza continues to suffer while the world's attention is diverted elsewhere. Bombardment has not stopped. Violations continue. People are still being killed. Much of what is happening in Gaza remains outside the global spotlight, as the war becomes preoccupied with the border regional conflict.
“The people of Gaza cannot afford another indefinite delay. Their suffering is ongoing, and their need for stability, reconstruction and dignity is immediate and urgent.”
Partners in Nigeria and Somaliland have also reported sharp increases in the cost of fuel and transportation in recent days – with rises in the cost of staple foods expected to follow. ActionAid warns that rising fuel costs and disruptions to supply routes linked to the war risk pushing already vulnerable communities deeper into food insecurity.
Andrew Mamedu, country director of ActionAid Nigeria, said: “Although the conflict is taking place thousands of kilometres away, the economic effects are already being felt in Nigeria because the country’s economy is highly sensitive to global oil market shocks. Fuel prices in Nigeria have already risen sharply. In recent days, petrol prices in Abuja have increased from roughly ₦875 per litre to around ₦1,050 per litre, representing a 20% increase, while in Lagos, prices have climbed from about ₦830–₦835 to roughly ₦1,000–₦1,100 per litre, a rise of approximately 20–32%. In some locations, petrol is already selling for more than ₦1,100 per litre. For many Nigerians, these changes have happened very quickly, with pump prices adjusting within days as fuel marketers respond to global market volatility.
“For communities that ActionAid Nigeria works alongside, the impact is already being felt through the rising cost of transportation and the pressure this places on household budgets. Experience from previous fuel price adjustments shows that higher transport and energy costs almost always translate into higher food prices shortly afterwards.
“Nigerian households were already under significant economic pressure before this latest escalation. What the current geopolitical escalation does is add another layer of pressure to an already fragile situation.”
In Somaliland, ActionAid colleagues report that the war has sparked a sharp rise in fuel prices which is already having significant operational consequences for humanitarian organisations. Water trucking, which requires journeys of up to 120km to reach drought‑affected communities, has become far more expensive, taking up a larger share of already limited budgets and impacting the ability to deliver other essential services and supplies.
ActionAid is calling for urgent diplomatic action to halt the violence and for sustained humanitarian support to ensure that communities already facing crisis are not pushed further into poverty and instability by the wider economic fallout of the war.
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Spokespeople in Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and Nigeria are available. For more information contact the press office at uk.media@actionaid.org or on 07753 973 486
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